Mister Tredyffrin and Friends

Last year I would have been pleased to consider Pennsylvania moving primary day to earlier in the calendar year to give local voters a greater say in selecting presidential candidates. I’m not in favor of a national primary day, but Iowa and New Hampshire are afforded way more political sway than they are entitled to.

The Pennsylvania primary has unexpectedly become the next great focus of Obama and Clinton, and I’m still less than pleased. I guess it’s be careful what you wish for. I’m glad to have a meaningful say in the process, but I really wish it was already decided. The Democrats are playing a risky game without one clear candidate in the lead, ready to start the general election.

I would prefer a nominee by now even if it would mean that my vote on April 22 wouldn’t really count. There’s a lot of uncertainty at this moment and it is difficult to foresee how the Democratic nomination is going to sort itself out.

The situation is definitely cloudy. Maybe there’s a silver lining.

Cloudy

• Clinton and Obama may beat up on each other so badly that the Democrats enter the general election with a scarred candidate. Remember how the 76ers and Celtics sometimes fought each other so fiercely that the tank was empty when it was time to battle the Lakers for the national crown? I’d hate to think that the negativity will be fodder for McCain and that the Democratic nominee is seriously wounded before the general election begins.

• Who’s going to have time to pick a Veep? McCain has months to vet a running mate. He can throw a lot of names against the wall and see what sticks. Obama and Clinton may have as little as two days after they have the nomination before a vice presidential candidate needs to be nominated. And it’s worse than that. How does Clinton or Obama approach someone in the opposite camp at this point? Whoever they talk to might feel like a traitor to even discuss such a possibility in advance. It could be like giving up on your own side. Yet, more than geographic or any other kind of balance, wouldn’t it make the most sense for either candidate to pick a running mate that their primary adversary’s partisans would be comfortable with?

• Ill will. I’m really much less concerned that Obama and Clinton will wound each other than I am that their partisans will become disenchanted. I’m confident that Clinton and Obama supporters will vote for the Democratic nominee regardless of who it is. I’m much less confident that they will work their tails off for anyone other than their current hero. There won’t be any gimmes in November. We need everyone energized and doing their part way before November 11. If anyone sulks for long or sits the race out in September and October, McCain will literally have a field day in November.

Silver Lining

• The Democratic race is monopolizing the bandwidth. After each party has their nominee, newspapers and television will tend to give each side fairly equal amounts of coverage. Right now there’s only one race, so Obama and Clinton are getting more coverage than McCain. There is only so much oxygen in the press room. Clinton and Obama are news and newsworthy; McCain is much less so.

• Obama and Clinton are becoming battle tested. At this point, they don’t have to answer anything that they won’t hear again louder, more pointed and nastier in the fall. It’s like a series of practice exams before the final. Their primary experience will make them better in the general election.

• Record turnouts. Past performance is the best predictor for who will vote in an election. The Democratic primaries have seen a record number of first time voters. In November, they should all become second time veterans of the process.

Next - Part II: Who Act Local is Voting For

            A.L.  11 March 2008