Mister Tredyffrin and Friends

The Democratic primary for president in 2008 is shaping up to be a very interesting battle that looks now like it will continue through the spring. Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, you have to admit that it is more interesting than the group of white men who are laboring in the shadow of the Bush-Cheney administration, trying to find the issues and the messages that will capture the attention of the nation.

With Clinton and Obama, we have a woman and an African American who are both passionate and compelling. They have the advantage of being from the “other” party, and they are using it to try out some different issues and priorities. They certainly don’t look like the kind of people who typically run for President of the United States. They each represent new demographics, and they have some baggage, as all politicians do. These are just a few of the reasons to feel strongly about either of them - whether you are a Democrat or a Republican.

For Democrats, this primary battle is once again an opportunity to dust off the long simmering debate over whether the liberal, anti-war wing of the party has the real juice, or whether the moderate, DLC (Democratic Leadership Council) wing of the party so effectively used by Bill Clinton will rule the day.

Hillary Clinton in this case represents the more moderate and established wing of the party. (This despite 15 years of efforts to define her as public liberal enemy #1). But hey - she voted for the war, or at least she voted for it before she voted against it! Barack Obama has made a concerted effort to reach out to the millenials (the generation around college age), and has adopted language and messages focusing on hope, idealism and cooperation.

But let’s step back from the implications of this primary race at the national level for a second and consider what it may mean in Tredyffrin. How could this race impact us here locally?

Well, there are at least three ways.

First, it is likely that both Clinton and Obama will still be viable candidates when the Pennsylvania primary rolls around in April, which means that assuming interest remains high – and given the record turnout in early primary and caucus states – this will boost turnout locally. The fact that Pennsylvania’s primary may actually come at a point where one of them is approaching the necessary number of delegates to secure the nomination will only add to this interest.

In other words, more Democrats locally in our area will go to the polls because of the candidates at the top of the ticket. This has been the stated goal of the local democratic party for the past couple cycles – to increase turnout among Democrats. Of course, we’ll have to see how it carries into the general election. But at least in April it will mean lots of activity among Democrats.

Second, it will likely increase the youth vote. We don’t think of the youth vote in Tredyffrin much these days, but in 2008 it’s all everyone is talking about. See this week’s TIME Magazine cover story [link]. Younger voters have been going to the polls this election cycle at a greater rate than any time in recent history, and with the outreach to these younger voters growing, it is likely to continue. Look for the 2000 students at Conestoga high school to be hit with dozens of solicitations via email, Facebook, MySpace and other online systems being established for this express purpose. How will they vote?

Third, we have to consider the impact of having a woman running for president. Women have never seen someone of their gender in the presidential category. Although Hillary Clinton is a polarizing figure – you either like her or you don’t – it shouldn’t be overlooked that she may have the capacity to cause some reflection by female voters who are Democrat, Republican and independent. If it is true – and I think it is – that the Republican registration numbers in Tredyffrin are soft, i.e., that many of those registered Republican actually vote frequently for Democrats, then this may be a factor. And if Hillary Clinton gets the nomination and is on all ballots in November, then there may be some moderate Republican women and Independents who might vote for her.

I think the Tredyffin Republican leadership made a tactical blunder when they accepted Carol Rubley to retire and then passed over her choice for successor - Judy DiFillipo - in favor of US Rep. Jim Gerlach’s top political man for the open state House 157th seat. They effectively removed any female candidates from the Republican ballot.

It remains to be seen if a bruising primary season will alienate the Democrats who support the candidate who does not prevail in Denver. But is hard to deny that the clear increase in interest among voters - particularly Democrats - will make this year different, even at the local level.

I can’t say how this will play out. But, given that many local races are decided by 50 or 100 or maybe 200 votes, increased overall interest, a surge in youth vote or a gender shift may be important factors in local races.

And if I had to say who these shifts in the traditional political winds will benefit, I’d tend to think it is advantage Democrats.